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Poll finds big Tory lead as campaign starts

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grumpy old man

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By DAVID AKIN PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU CHIEF

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative Party holds a commanding lead over his rivals, according to a new poll released late Thursday.(REUTERS/Blair Gable)

OTTAWA -­ The country's 41st general election campaign will get underway Saturday with Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative Party holding a commanding lead over his rivals, according to a new poll released late Thursday.

Harper's government is expected to lose a confidence vote in the House of Commons around 2 p.m. EDT Friday. A government source told QMI Agency that Harper is "expected" to ask Governor General David Johnston on Saturday to dissolve Parliament for an election that's expected to be on May 2.

Harper hits the campaign trail with the wind at his back, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

Ipsos Reid shows the Conservatives are the choice of 43% of Canadians as the campaign opens.

Traditionally, voter support of above 40% translates into a majority government.

The Liberals trail badly at 24% under their leader, Michael Ignatieff, 19 percentage points behind the Conservatives. In the 2008 general election campaign, leader Stephane Dion took the Liberals to their lowest popular vote since Confederation at just over 26%.

Ipsos has the NDP at 16% and the Greens at 6%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has a commanding lead with 41%, followed by the Conservatives at 25%, the Liberals at 18%, the NDP at 13% and the Greens at 3%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have a 46%-30% lead over the Liberals and in B.C., it¹s an astounding 50%-22% lead.

The NDP has the support of 16% of Ontarians and 20% of British Columbians.

The poll was taken March 22-23, after the budget was tabled and after the Conservatives had been buffeted by allegations that former top PMO advisor Bruce Carson was facing the allegations of influence peddling and after a series of parliamentary hearings concluded the Harper government was in contempt of Parliament.

And yet, those ethics issues and several others seem to have, if anything, helped the Tories.

For the poll, Ipsos Reid surveyed 1,001 people by phone and says their national results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.


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Goth_chic

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Lets hope for a Conservative majority!!!


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Jondo

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Damn that is good news. When the Tory ads roll out next week - things can only get better. This election will change politics in Canada for a long time. Many scores will be settled with a necessary majority.

Deank

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heh.. too late now with some Libs already putting signs up in some areas (illegally) but I wonder if this will give some of them pause to reconsider blindly following the count?


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Jondo

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Have faith that Canadian's have had enough of the separatist Bloc. The Conservative's will cultivate that sentiment and the coalition will be rejected everywhere outside of Quebec. Look for sweeps in most provinces. Including out east now that Danny Williams is out of the picture.

rosencrentz

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I am a recent card carrying Conservative, but I don't think that I will vote for Harper. he is too scary, and I have seen the negative ads that the Liberals are planning and I think I may waste my vote for the NDP, because I believe that the Liberals and Conservatives are both CRAP!


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Why would you take out a Conservative Party membership and then not vote for them ?

Whatever.

grumpy old man

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Don't take the bait jtf...


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It's their, they're and there; in Canada it's colour, cheque, rumour and zed...

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I won't. He's getting boring already with all his trolling. Not cute anymore.

Mantha

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Just get a majority already. I'm sick of politicians wasting time fighting each other.

http://yaciuk.blogspot.com

Deank

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I do like the minority government for the work it can get done towards what all Canadians want. HOWEVER, this confidence crap and voting is farking annoying. Perhaps we need legislation that enables/forces these guys to actually work together.


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Mantha

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I agree - a minority government is fine. Just not THIS minority government.

http://yaciuk.blogspot.com

Deank

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I wonder... would cons already be in majority if the cons had just let the tools force an election 2 months after the last one?

I also wonder if perhaps if that had happened.. we MIGHT not have these damn traffic circles... Smile


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grumpy old man

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Would it help somewhat if the conservatives didn't act like jerks?


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Yes, I really am that Grumpy...

It's their, they're and there; in Canada it's colour, cheque, rumour and zed...

Deank

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All MPs act like jerks sometimes Smile


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Mantha

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Why would I become a member of a political party? Are there any benefits? And does the money collected from that go to something different than if I were to just donate that money?

This is a serious question.

http://yaciuk.blogspot.com

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Deank wrote:
I do like the minority government for the work it can get done towards what all Canadians want.

Put away the Kool-aid Deano, you sound like Jack Layton.

Are you gonna take the poll to determine just what "all Canadians want"?

Why would over 40% of Canadians bow down to the wishes of 15%? When you get legislation made this way it simply sucks as some things are not able to be compromised.

grumpy old man

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As a rule there is very little benefit for becoming a card carrying member. However, if you want to play a greater role withing the party you do need to be a member.

I've been involved at various levels of politics, officially, and as a volunteer. I can tell you they are very clique...

I won't join another party. Except maybe the Manitoba Party...


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Yes, I really am that Grumpy...

It's their, they're and there; in Canada it's colour, cheque, rumour and zed...

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Mantha wrote:Why would I become a member of a political party? Are there any benefits?
Because you can do things to influence the party and thereby, possibly, Canadian law.

And does the money collected from that go to something different than if I were to just donate that money?
Please re-phrase.

grumpy old man

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JTF wrote:Put away the Kool-aid Deano, you sound like Jack Layton.

Are you gonna take the poll to determine just what "all Canadians want"?

Why would over 40% of Canadians bow down to the wishes of 15%? When you get legislation made this way it simply sucks as some things are not able to be compromised.
A good example of NOT listening to Canadians is the election itself! I wonder how many want an election. I'd be willing to bet big bucks the average Canadian does not want this election.

That would be listening.

There are a bazzillion polls run that basically say what Canadians want. You know, changes to the justice system. Better roads. Become a have province.

The icewholes we elect (ALL OF THEM) can work together to do what we ask...


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Yes, I really am that Grumpy...

It's their, they're and there; in Canada it's colour, cheque, rumour and zed...

Mantha

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JTF wrote:
And does the money collected from that go to something different than if I were to just donate that money?
Please re-phrase.

It's $10 for a membership. If I just DONATED $10 instead of buying a membership, does it go into the same account?

I guess I'm asking if the Conservatives can use my measly $10 for the upcoming election, or if that money is just put in a pool used exclusively for sending out membership mailings, or buying coffee and donuts for meetings.

This is mostly just a curiosity question, because obviously a $10 membership fee isn't going to make much difference considering the price of commercials. Smile

http://yaciuk.blogspot.com

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All money collected, unless specified in a particular fundraiser, goes into general revenue to be used as required.

Deank

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JTF wrote:
Deank wrote:
I do like the minority government for the work it can get done towards what all Canadians want.

Put away the Kool-aid Deano, you sound like Jack Layton.

Are you gonna take the poll to determine just what "all Canadians want"?

Why would over 40% of Canadians bow down to the wishes of 15%? When you get legislation made this way it simply sucks as some things are not able to be compromised.

Apparently you dont understand what compromise is either.


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According to your buddy Jack, it means his way or it isn't a compromise.

That's the problem.


Harper gave him 15% of what he wanted. Seems fair to me. Smile

Deank

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he aint my buddy Smile

and I agree the moron does not understand compromise means... lets work on a deal.. not... give me this or I wont support you.


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