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The end is near - for one party

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1 The end is near - for one party on Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:37 pm

Jondo

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So here we are one day away. I couldn't dredge up the old predictions so let's recap but first with a bit of info.

The polls are showing NDP ahead in Wpg but behind outside of. That amounts to a 50/50% for either party's victory. However I don't think the polls tell the tale. Remember Nick Nanos of Nanos Research guaranteeing another PC minority on the eve of the May 2nd Fed election? His respected calculations somehow missed the strong majority - and NOBODY reflected the near total demise of the Liberals (or that the NDP would finish that strong).



I predict, on that same basis, that the PC's will win a majority and everbody will be shocked (at least the left media). A slight revision from earlier.



PC's - 30

NDP - 25

Liberals - 2

2 Re: The end is near - for one party on Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:41 pm

Jondo

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I should add that if the NDP win - Hugh will be gone and a leadership race begin next spring. They can blame the "conservative" campaign strategy for that loss. Many not happy with them playing centre-field rather than pressing hard and clear on the issues that people thought and expected they would.

3 Re: The end is near - for one party on Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:56 pm

grumpy old man

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Totally agree...


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4 Re: The end is near - for one party on Mon Oct 03, 2011 8:53 pm

Triniman

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Ditto.


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“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through
our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that
democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'



― Isaac Asimov

5 Re: The end is near - for one party on Tue Oct 04, 2011 7:34 am

Guest

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We'll all be a lot smarter in about 14 or 15 hours.

6 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:43 am

Triniman

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Jondo wrote:I should add that if the NDP win - Hugh will be gone and a leadership race begin next spring. They can blame the "conservative" campaign strategy for that loss. Many not happy with them playing centre-field rather than pressing hard and clear on the issues that people thought and expected they would.



Yep. Funny thing is, they brought in strategists who helped secure the Harper majority. Something went wrong. I'll have to tune in to Adler for his perspective.


_________________
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through
our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that
democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'



― Isaac Asimov

7 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:48 am

rosencrentz

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JTF- it is now 13 hours later and I sure hope that in another 2-3 hours I will feel a lot smarter! Is there any guarantee with your last comment? lol


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8 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:57 am

Guest

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100% money back guarantee.
Smile

See. Already you've learned something and have become smarter.

9 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:00 am

Guest

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Funny thing is, they brought in strategists who helped secure the Harper majority.
Huh?

Obviously they couldn't have followed their advice.

10 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:16 am

Triniman

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JTF wrote:
Funny thing is, they brought in strategists who helped secure the Harper majority.
Huh?

Obviously they couldn't have followed their advice.

Maybe. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Here's what the Freep said.

"And finally, McFadyen had secured the services of some top-notch federal strategists to run his campaign, operatives that had shown a capacity to snatch safe seats away from other parties regardless of poll result or trend. These operatives bought up every billboard, every bus advertisement and every 30-second spot on live radio broadcasts of the leaders debates. The Tories were in it to win it this time around."

Well-oiled NDP machine crushes McFadyen


_________________
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through
our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that
democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'



― Isaac Asimov

11 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:06 am

grumpy old man

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JTF wrote:
Funny thing is, they brought in strategists who helped secure the Harper majority.
Huh?

Obviously they couldn't have followed their advice.
More likely their advise was dead wrong.

The campaign was VERY low key despite years of ndp failures. McFadyn was vanilla as hell, low key, bland. He did not shout the PC story loud enough (even though it turned out he did not have anything new to say).

I, and others, have been saying this since BEFORE the 2007 election.


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It's their, they're and there; in Canada it's colour, cheque, rumour and zed...

12 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:19 am

sputnik

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McFadyen brought nothing to the table. Sure the idea of taxation (up or down) won't win votes and the concept of privatizing Hydro or MPI would be off the table as well.

But what about some easy low hanging fruit?

- Loosening liquor laws
- Privatizing liquor stores
- Tightening regluation on payday loans and cheque cashing outlets
- Review MPI financial practices to avoid rebates
- Funding transit, interchanges or pathway systems
- Upgrading major highways
- Increasing divided highway speed limits to 110kmh

These are all things people will like without having any social implications that could be exploited.

I think they missed the boat by saying that Manitobans should vote for change without giving any real examples as to what that change would be.

13 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:20 am

Guest

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I would never have thought that Don Plett was a federal strategist myself.

The two campaigns were so different that I very much doubt that they came from the same place...even if Dan Lett says so.

14 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:03 pm

Triniman

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sputnik wrote:I think they missed the boat by saying that Manitobans should vote for change without giving any real examples as to what that change would be.

Very well said.


_________________
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through
our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that
democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'



― Isaac Asimov

15 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:28 pm

Guest

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Does anyone think that Hughie's 'pretty boy' good looks worked against him?

16 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:30 pm

Triniman

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JTF wrote:Does anyone think that Hughie's 'pretty boy' good looks worked against him?

Yee gods! Yeah, Who's the Breck girl.

17 Re: The end is near - for one party on Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:55 pm

Guest

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They nailed him with the 'nice suit' thing.

Amateurs running things methinks.

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